Spreading processes are often modelled as a stochastic dynamics occurring on top of a given network with edge weights corresponding to the transmission probabilities. Knowledge of veracious transmission probabilities is essential for prediction, optimization, and control of diffusion dynamics. Unfortunately, in most cases the transmission rates are unknown and need to be reconstructed from the spreading data. Moreover, in realistic settings it is impossible to monitor the state of each node at every time, and thus the data is highly incomplete. We introduce an efficient dynamic message-passing algorithm, which is able to reconstruct parameters of the spreading model given only partial information on the activation times of nodes in the network. The method is generalizable to a large class of dynamic models, as well to the case of temporal graphs.

Spreading processes are often modelled as a stochastic dynamics occurring on top of a given network with edge weights corresponding to the transmission probabilities. Knowledge of veracious transmission probabilities is essential for prediction, optimization, and control of diffusion dynamics. Unfortunately, in most cases the transmission rates are unknown and need to be reconstructed from the spreading data. Moreover, in realistic settings it is impossible to monitor the state of each node at every time, and thus the data is highly incomplete. We introduce an efficient dynamic message-passing algorithm, which is able to reconstruct parameters of the spreading model given only partial information on the activation times of nodes in the network. The method is generalizable to a large class of dynamic models, as well to the case of temporal graphs.

Precise conditions for the parameters recovery at a given accuracy are still lacking.

The p-persistent CSMA protocol is central to random-access MAC analysis, but predicting saturation throughput in heterogeneous multi-hop wireless networks remains a hard problem. Simplified models that assume a single, shared interference domain can underestimate throughput by 48-62% in sparse topologies. Exact Markov-chain analyses are accurate but scale exponentially in computation time, making them impractical for large networks. These computational barriers motivate structural machine learning approaches like GNNs for scalable throughput prediction in general network topologies. Yet off-the-shelf GNNs struggle here: a standard GCN yields 63.94% normalized mean absolute error (NMAE) on heterogeneous networks because symmetric normalization conflates a node's direct interference with higher-order, cascading effects that pertain to how interference propagates over the network graph. Building on these insights, we propose the Decoupled Graph Convolutional Network (D-GCN), a novel architecture that explicitly separates processing of a node's own transmission probability from neighbor interference effects. D-GCN replaces mean aggregation with learnable attention, yielding interpretable, per-neighbor contribution weights while capturing complex multihop interference patterns. D-GCN attains 3.3% NMAE, outperforms strong baselines, remains tractable even when exact analytical methods become computationally infeasible, and enables gradient-based network optimization that achieves within 1% of theoretical optima.

The paper studies transition phenomena in information cascades observed along a diffusion process over some graph. We introduce the Laplace Hazard matrix and show that its spectral radius fully characterizes the dynamics of the contagion both in terms of influence and of explosion time. Using this concept, we prove tight non-asymptotic bounds for the influence of a set of nodes, and we also provide an in-depth analysis of the critical time after which the contagion becomes super-critical. Our contributions include formal definitions and tight lower bounds of critical explosion time. We illustrate the relevance of our theoretical results through several examples of information cascades used in epidemiology and viral marketing models. Finally, we provide a series of numerical experiments for various types of networks which confirm the tightness of the theoretical bounds.

Calibrating agent-based epidemic models is computationally demanding. We present a supervised machine learning calibrator that learns the inverse mapping from epidemic time series to SIR parameters. A three-layer bidirectional LSTM ingests 60-day incidence together with population size and recovery rate, and outputs transmission probability, contact rate, and R0. Training uses a composite loss with an epidemiology-motivated consistency penalty that encourages R0 \* recovery rate to equal transmission probability \* contact rate. In a 1000-scenario simulation study, we compare the calibrator with Approximate Bayesian Computation (likelihood-free MCMC). The method achieves lower error across all targets (MAE: R0 0.0616 vs 0.275; transmission 0.0715 vs 0.128; contact 1.02 vs 4.24), produces tighter predictive intervals with near nominal coverage, and reduces wall clock time from 77.4 s to 2.35 s per calibration. Although contact rate and transmission probability are partially nonidentifiable, the approach reproduces epidemic curves more faithfully than ABC, enabling fast and practical calibration. We evaluate it on SIR agent based epidemics generated with epiworldR and provide an implementation in R.

This paper studies the problem of federated training of a deep neural network (DNN) over a random access channel (RACH) such as in computer networks, wireless networks, and cellular systems. More precisely, a set of remote users participate in training a centralized DNN model using SGD under the coordination of a parameter server (PS). The local model updates are transmitted from the remote users to the PS over a RACH using a slotted ALOHA protocol. The PS collects the updates from the remote users, accumulates them, and sends central model updates to the users at regular time intervals. We refer to this setting as the RACH-FL setting. The RACH-FL setting crucially addresses the problem of jointly designing a (i) client selection and (ii) gradient compression strategy which addresses the communication constraints between the remote users and the PS when transmission occurs over a RACH. For the RACH-FL setting, we propose a policy, which we term the ''age-of-gradient'' (AoG) policy in which (i) gradient sparsification is performed using top-K sparsification, (ii) the error correction is performed using memory accumulation, and (iii) the slot transmission probability is obtained by comparing the current local memory magnitude minus the magnitude of the gradient update to a threshold. Intuitively, the AoG measure of ''freshness'' of the memory state is reminiscent of the concept of age-of-information (AoI) in the context of communication theory and provides a rather natural interpretation of this policy. Numerical simulations show the superior performance of the AoG policy as compared to other RACH-FL policies.

The paper studies transition phenomena in information cascades observed along a diffusion process over some graph. We introduce the Laplace Hazard matrix and show that its spectral radius fully characterizes the dynamics of the contagion both in terms of influence and of explosion time. Using this concept, we prove tight non-asymptotic bounds for the influence of a set of nodes, and we also provide an in-depth analysis of the critical time after which the contagion becomes super-critical. Our contributions include formal definitions and tight lower bounds of critical explosion time. We illustrate the relevance of our theoretical results through several examples of information cascades used in epidemiology and viral marketing models. Finally, we provide a series of numerical experiments for various types of networks which confirm the tightness of the theoretical bounds.

Spreading processes are often modelled as a stochastic dynamics occurring on top of a given network with edge weights corresponding to the transmission probabilities. Knowledge of veracious transmission probabilities is essential for prediction, optimization, and control of diffusion dynamics. Unfortunately, in most cases the transmission rates are unknown and need to be reconstructed from the spreading data. Moreover, in realistic settings it is impossible to monitor the state of each node at every time, and thus the data is highly incomplete. We introduce an efficient dynamic message-passing algorithm, which is able to reconstruct parameters of the spreading model given only partial information on the activation times of nodes in the network. The method is generalizable to a large class of dynamic models, as well to the case of temporal graphs.

Advancements in nanotechnology and material science are paving the way toward nanoscale devices that combine sensing, computing, data and energy storage, and wireless communication. In precision medicine, these nanodevices show promise for disease diagnostics, treatment, and monitoring from within the patients' bloodstreams. Assigning the location of a sensed biological event with the event itself, which is the main proposition of flow-guided in-body nanoscale localization, would be immensely beneficial from the perspective of precision medicine. The nanoscale nature of the nanodevices and the challenging environment that the bloodstream represents, result in current flow-guided localization approaches being constrained in their communication and energy-related capabilities. The communication and energy constraints of the nanodevices result in different features of raw data for flow-guided localization, in turn affecting its performance. An analytical modeling of the effects of imperfect communication and constrained energy causing intermittent operation of the nanodevices on the raw data produced by the nanodevices would be beneficial. Hence, we propose an analytical model of raw data for flow-guided localization, where the raw data is modeled as a function of communication and energy-related capabilities of the nanodevice. We evaluate the model by comparing its output with the one obtained through the utilization of a simulator for objective evaluation of flow-guided localization, featuring comparably higher level of realism. Our results across a number of scenarios and heterogeneous performance metrics indicate high similarity between the model and simulator-generated raw datasets.